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Environmental Research

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Environmental Research's content profile, based on 46 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.07% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Consumer-Product Chemical Mixture and Systemic Inflammation: Survey-Weighted Analysis of Seven Urinary Biomarkers in NHANES 2005-2010

Jobe, N. I.

2026-06-10 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355076 medRxiv
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Background: Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in consumer products are ubiquitously detected in human biospecimens, yet most epidemiological studies examine single chemicals rather than real-world co-exposures. We evaluated associations between a mixture of seven urinary chemical biomarkers and systemic inflammation. Methods: Survey-weighted log-log regression models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, poverty-income ratio, and survey cycle were conducted with Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction (primary analysis, N=4,864). A sensitivity analysis additionally adjusted for body mass index and smoking status (N=4,494). Results: In the primary analysis, 5 of 7 chemicals showed significant associations after FDR correction: ethylparaben ({beta} = -0.056, FDR P < .001), propylparaben ({beta} = -0.026, FDR P = .007), bisphenol A ({beta} = +0.052, FDR P = .005), monoethyl phthalate ({beta} = +0.043, FDR P = .002), and monocyclohexyl phthalate ({beta} = +0.215, FDR P = .007). The WQS mixture index was significantly associated with CRP ({beta} = +0.056, 95% CI [0.031, 0.081], P < .001), with monocyclohexyl phthalate carrying the largest mixture weight (0.342). In the BMI- and smoking-adjusted sensitivity analysis, associations attenuated to null for all chemicals, though MCP preserved direction ({beta} = +0.129) and the WQS mixture direction was maintained ({beta} = +0.018). Two multiple imputation sensitivity analyses confirmed that monocyclohexyl phthalate was the only chemical to maintain a positive direction across all four analytical specifications (primary complete-case, BMI-adjusted complete-case, primary-aligned imputation, and BMI-adjusted imputation), reaching statistical significance in three of four specifications and providing convergent evidence of a robust MCP-inflammation association. Conclusions: The chemical mixture showed a significant collective association with systemic inflammation, consistent with a cumulative pro-inflammatory burden from co-exposure to multiple consumer product chemicals. These findings suggest that regulatory approaches should shift from single-chemical to mixture-based risk assessment frameworks for consumer product safety.

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Insights from Wastewater Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Skilled Nursing Facilities: Comparing Virus Concentration Methods for Wastewater and Correlating Wastewater Virus Concentrations with Clinical Infections, Georgia, USA, 2022

Whitehill, F.; Lyons, A. K.; Abera, B.; Adler, C.; Burgos-Garay, M.; Campbell, M.; Santiago, A. J.; Ganim, C.; Moore, J.; Cahela, Y.; Lenz, S.; Gable, P.; Medrzycki, M.; Walters, M. S.; Keaton, A.; Cook, P. W.; Li, Y.; Tao, Y.; Zhang, J.; Malapati, L.; Retchless, A. C.; Tong, S.; Williams, M.; Donlan, R.; Coulliette-Salmond, A.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354622 medRxiv
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To understand the utility of healthcare facility-level wastewater surveillance (WWS) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it is important to correlate wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection with the number of clinical infections. WWS for SARS-CoV-2 was performed at three skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) over 25 weeks. Electronegative membrane filtration (enMF) and Nanotrap(R) Magnetic Virus Particles (NP) virus concentration methods were compared. Extracts were tested by droplet digital polymerase chain reaction. Spearman's correlations ({rho}) between wastewater virus RNA concentrations and infection counts were calculated. From split wastewater samples, enMF recovered higher SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations than NP. Combining data from all facilities, the median concentrations were 53.0 versus 38.6 gc/100 mL for enMF and NP, respectively (p=0.001). Using enMF, correlations were moderate to strong at SNF A ({rho} ranged 0.67 to 0.86, all p-values <0.001). Weak to moderate correlations can be explained by the sampled manhole not representing the entire facility (SNF B, {rho} ranged 0.47 to 0.72, p-values ranged <0.001 to 0.12) and longitudinal data gaps from summer heat and equipment maintenance (SNF C, {rho} ranged 0.14 to 0.59, p-values ranged 0.52 to <0.01). WWS can be a valuable tool for tracking dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections in healthcare facilities.

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Multi-Pathogen Wastewater Surveillance enables Real-Time Targeted Public Health Interventions During the 2025 African Nations Championship Football Tournament

Nsawotebba, A.; Morunyanga, I.; Nakintu, V.; Kabazzi, J.; Magala, J.; Uragiwenimana, V.; Ssekyondwa, S.; Kasujja, R.; Onywera, H.; Hull, N.; Akejo, D. S.; Dambya, C.; Ikoba, S.; Baraka, V.; Tebeje, Y. K.; Barigye, E.; Cham, F.; Ssewanyana, I.; Nabaasa, H.; Muruta, A.; Olaro, C.; Atwine, D.; Nabadda, S.; Acheng, J. R.

2026-06-08 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354973 medRxiv
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Mass gatherings pose significant public health risks by facilitating the spread of infectious diseases. While wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been widely used to monitor pathogens in high-income settings, its use as a practical, multi-pathogen surveillance tool during mass gatherings in low- and middle-income countries remains limited. This study aimed to assess the operational feasibility, epidemiological significance, and public health utility of multi-pathogen WBS during the African Nations Championship (CHAN) football tournament in Uganda. Wastewater surveillance was conducted at Mandela National Stadium during eight match days in August 2025. Moore swabs were deployed at 38 manholes receiving wastewater from different toilet facilities across the stadium to capture representative wastewater samples. Samples were processed using Nanotrap(R) microbiome virus particles to concentrate pathogens, followed by nucleic acid extraction. Samples were analyzed for multiple enteric and respiratory pathogens, including Mpox, using quantitative PCR (qPCR). Descriptive analyses were performed to characterize pathogen detection patterns, positivity rates, and temporal distribution across surveillance sites. A total of 304 wastewater samples were collected and analyzed, of which 259 (85.2%) tested positive for at least one pathogen. Multiple pathogens were consistently detected across sampling days, with enteric pathogens predominating, particularly Shigella spp. (53.6%), Rotavirus A (35.9%) and Enterovirus (32.2%). The mpox virus was also detected in a notable proportion of samples (28.6%) across several sampling days. Respiratory pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2 (11.8%) and Influenza B (8.2%), were identified intermittently at lower frequencies. Pathogen diversity varied over time, with up to eight pathogens detected on a single day, and co-detection of multiple pathogens observed in the majority of positive samples. Cq value distributions further demonstrated variability in detected signal patterns across pathogens. Surveillance findings informed real-time public health interventions, including sanitation reinforcement, intensified hygiene promotion, environmental disinfection, and targeted risk communication, strengthened syndromic surveillance with on-site triage, and targeted environmental health assessments of food handling and wastewater infrastructure. These findings demonstrate the operational feasibility and public health utility of integrating multi-pathogen wastewater-based surveillance into mass-gathering preparedness and response frameworks in low-resource settings. By capturing diverse pathogen signals and informing targeted interventions during the CHAN football tournament, WBS can provide actionable population-level insights that can support outbreak preparedness and response. Scaling WBS within national preparedness systems could strengthen epidemic intelligence, enhance early warning capacity, and support data-driven public health decision-making during future mass gatherings and emerging infectious disease threats.

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Shifting patterns of importation risk of Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease to Europe under outbreak expansion scenarios

Fanelli, F.; Parino, F.; Poletto, C.; Colizza, V.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.31.26354511 medRxiv
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The 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has already generated international spread to Uganda, raising concerns about further regional and international dissemination. Using International Air Transport Association origin-destination passenger flows, we assessed relative exposure to Ebola virus disease importation into Europe under six outbreak expansion scenarios reflecting plausible pathways of geographical spread, including cross-border transmission and amplification in highly connected regional capitals. Relative exposure patterns remained largely unchanged under localized transmission in eastern DRC and border-spillover scenarios. Expansion into South Sudan generated a first structural increase in importation pressure to Europe through the connectivity associated with Juba, while hypothetical amplification in Kampala, Kigali, and Kinshasa substantially increased importation pressure and reshaped exposure patterns across Europe. Across all scenarios, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom remained among the most exposed countries. Mobility-informed scenario analyses support preparedness as the geography of the outbreak evolves.

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Serum Cotinine and Wrist-Worn Ambient Light Exposure Patterns in U.S. Adults: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of NHANES 2011-2014

Wong, A.; Lee, C. W.; Park, A.; Yin, L.; Choi, Y.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354759 medRxiv
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Background. Tobacco smoke exposure, quantified by serum cotinine, is associated with cardiovascular, metabolic, and sleep-related health risks. The relationship between biomarker-verified tobacco smoke exposure and objectively measured, free-living wrist-worn ambient light patterns has not been examined in a nationally representative U.S. adult sample. Methods. We analyzed NHANES 2011-2014 cross-sectional data from 6,937 adults aged >20 years with valid serum cotinine and wrist-worn Physical Activity Monitor (PAM) ambient light data. Seven light outcomes were modeled using survey-weighted linear regression with log2(cotinine+1) as the continuous exposure across four covariate adjustment levels. Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) correction was applied across the 7 outcomes within each model. Results. In Model 2 (adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, poverty-income ratio, BMI, and survey cycle; N = 6,350), higher serum cotinine was associated with significantly higher nighttime light (beta = +0.024, 95% CI: 0.010, 0.038; p-FDR = 0.014) and lower evening light (beta = -0.031, 95% CI: -0.055, -0.008; p-FDR = 0.042). In exploratory behavioral models without alcohol (Model 3a; N = 5,766), both nighttime and evening associations remained FDR-significant. After additional adjustment for alcohol, which substantially reduced the sample due to 37.6% missingness (Model 3b; N = 3,866), the nighttime association attenuated below the FDR threshold, while the evening association remained FDR-significant. Categorical analyses showed progressively higher nighttime light across cotinine groups, and a hypothesis-generating sex interaction was identified (p-interaction = 0.001). Conclusions. Higher serum cotinine concentrations were associated with higher nighttime and lower evening ambient light after sociodemographic adjustment. Attenuation after behavioral adjustment and the cross-sectional design preclude causal inference. Longitudinal studies with formal mediation analyses are needed to clarify the temporal ordering and mechanisms linking tobacco smoke exposure, smoking-related behaviors, and personal light-dark cycle patterns.

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Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Among US Adults, 1999-2023: National Trends and Projections Through 2050

Fu, F.; Wei, A.; Wang, G.; Fang, S.; Chen, J.; Liu, W.; Liu, H.; Gao, X.; Lei, Y.; Guo, N.; Chen, M.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Li, S.; Mao, Y.; Yan, L.

2026-06-10 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355220 medRxiv
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Background Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome integrates adiposity, metabolic risk, kidney dysfunction, and cardiovascular disease in a prevention-oriented framework. National estimates across 1999-2023 NHANES and future burden remain limited. Methods We analyzed US adults aged 20 years from 11 NHANES cycles, 1999-2000 through August 2021-August 2023. CKM stage 0-4 was assigned using harmonized examination, laboratory, medication, and questionnaire data. Prevalence was survey-weighted and standardized to the 2010 US Census adult population. Decade trends used survey-weighted logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exploratory 2040 and 2050 projections combined NHANES prevalence models with US Census projections under population-aging-only, trend-continuation, and risk-improvement scenarios. Results Among 62,890 eligible adults, 62,888 had sufficient CKM data. In 2021-2023, age-standardized prevalence was 87.9% (95% CI, 86.5%-89.4%) for CKM stage 1 and 62.0% (95% CI, 60.1%-63.8%) for stages 2-4. Stage 2 accounted for 50.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-51.9%) and stages 3-4 for 11.9% (95% CI, 11.0%-12.7%). From 1999-2000 to 2021-2023, any CKM increased by 4.6 percentage points (95% CI, 2.4 to 6.9; P<0.001), whereas stages 2-4 changed by 2.1 percentage points (95% CI, 5.1 to 0.8; P=0.156). In adjusted decade models, any CKM increased (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.19-1.38; P<0.001), while stages 2-4 showed no significant linear trend (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.89-1.01; P=0.084). Excess adiposity and diabetes increased, dyslipidemia declined, and hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and clinical cardiovascular disease were stable. With population aging alone, projected stages 2-4 burden rose from 164.8 million adults in 2023 to 193.7 million in 2050; under risk improvement, it was 147.7 million. Conclusions CKM syndrome remained highly prevalent among US adults. Although later stages did not increase significantly, population aging may expand the absolute care burden unless broad risk improvement occurs.

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Improved water access may not reduce women's time burdens: Evidence from Kenya and Honduras

Sinharoy, S.; Mink, T.; Ogutu, E. A.; Patrick, M.; Nuncio, M. d. C. A.; Bolanos Gamez, M. V.; Oglesby, H.; Ngo, C. P.; Antonio, S.; Medina Lopez, E. R.; Mwangi, P.; Koome, P.; Otuya, P. A.; Ruto, P.; Otieno Onyango, R.; Caruso, B. A.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354805 medRxiv
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Women's disproportionate responsibility for unpaid domestic and care work, including water collection, remains a barrier to gender equality globally and may constrain women's ability to engage in income-generating activities. We compared women's and men's time use in rural Kenya and Honduras and assessed whether women's time spent on water collection and income-generating activities differed between communities that had or had not received an improved water source from World Vision. We also examined the measurement of time-use agency among women and men. In-person surveys were conducted in July-August 2024 with 95 participants (48 women, 47 men) in six Kenyan communities and 102 participants (53 women, 49 men) in six Honduran communities. Surveys included a 24-hour time-use recall module and items on time-use agency. Analyses compared time use by gender and by community intervention status (improved vs. not yet improved water supply), and confirmatory factor analysis assessed the validity of the time-use agency measure. Women in both study sites spent substantially more time than men on unpaid domestic and care work activities, including cooking, cleaning, laundry, and caregiving. In Kenya, women also spent significantly more time collecting water. Men spent more time sleeping (Kenya), on paid work (Honduras), unpaid agricultural work (both settings), and traveling (both settings). Across both countries, there were no significant differences between intervention and comparison communities in women's time spent on water collection or income-generating activities. In Kenya, most respondents reported high influence over their time, and six items showed strong validity for measuring instrumental time-use agency. Women's time burdens remained high even in communities that had received improved water sources, including at the household level. Our results suggest that more transformative water infrastructure, combined with interventions that address gendered social norms, may be needed to meaningfully reduce women's domestic work burden and support their economic empowerment.

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Inflammation and late life depressive symptoms

Forbes, M.; Lotfaliany, M.; Miteku, B. M.; Yu, C.; Lacaze, P.; Isvoranu, A.-M.; Kang, M.; Nguyen, T.; Woods, R.; McNeil, J.; Neumann, J.; Mohebbi, M.; Berk, M.

2026-06-10 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354416 medRxiv
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Background Low-level systemic inflammation has been associated with late-life depressive symptoms. Whether individuals with higher inflammation derive preventive benefit from low-dose aspirin therapy is unknown. Methods We performed a post-hoc analysis of the ASPiring in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Baseline C-reactive protein (hsCRP) was measured in plasma and depressive symptoms were assessed annually using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression 10 Scale with elevated symptoms defined as CES-D-10 >= 8. Participants with elevated depressive symptoms at baseline were excluded. We fitted population-averaged logistic generalised estimating equation models adjusted for baseline sociodemographic and lifestyle covariates, including an hsCRP x treatment interaction to test effect modification by aspirin. Results Higher baseline hsCRP was associated with increased odds of elevated depressive symptoms during follow-up (OR 1.07 per SD increase in hsCRP, 95% CI 1.03-1.11). Low-dose aspirin allocation did not modify the hsCRP-depressive symptoms association (interaction OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.94-1.10). Findings were similar after additional adjustment for comorbidity and other covariates. Conclusions In community-dwelling older adults during the ASPREE randomised trial period, higher baseline hsCRP was modestly associated with elevated depressive symptoms. There was no evidence that low-dose aspirin was associated with reduced risk of depressive symptoms among participants with higher baseline inflammation.

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Neonatal mortality risk of large-for-gestational age and macrosomic live births in low- and middle-income subnational birth cohorts: An individual participant meta-analysis (2000-2017)

Kirakoya Samadoulougou, F.; Barche, B.; Ukwishaka, J.; Subedi, S.; Erchick, D. J.; Suarez Idueta, L.; Hamer, D. H.; Semrau, K. E. A.; Hamomba, F. M.; Banda, B.; Manasyan, A.; Pry, J. M.; Maleta, K.; Ashorn, U.; Schmiegelow, C.; Hjort, L.; Minja, D. T. R.; Lusingu, J. P. A.; Freitas da Silveira, M.; Buffarini, R.; Baqui, A. H.; Khanam, R.; Ahmed, S.; Zhu, Z.; Zeng, L.; Cheng, Y.; Lachat, C.; Roberfroid, D.; Huybregts, L.; Toe, L. C.; Tielsch, J. M.; Khatry, S. K.; Mullany, L. C.; Ohuma, E. O.; Blencowe, H.; Katz, J.; Lee, A. C. C.; Black, R. E.; Hazel, E. A.

2026-06-06 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354851 medRxiv
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Background Large-for-gestational-age (LGA) and macrosomic newborns are at increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, including death, yet the burden of neonatal mortality associated with these conditions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where ongoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions suggest their prevalence will rise, remains poorly quantified. In this study, we quantify the neonatal mortality risk associated with LGA and macrosomia from 16 subnational birth cohorts in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017. Methods and findings This is an individual-participant meta-analysis to estimate neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and relative risks among LGA infants (>90th and >97th percentile birth weight-for-gestational-age using INTERGROWTH-21st) versus appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA, 10th-90th percentile) infants. Macrosomic ([&ge;]4000 g and [&ge;]4500 g) neonates were compared with those weighing 2500 g-3999g. Missing birth weights were imputed using recalibration and multiple imputation methods. We used random effects meta-analysis to pool relative risks. Median prevalences of LGA >90th and >97th percentile were 5.3% (interquartile range 3.6-8.2) and 2.6% (IQR 1.3-4.5), respectively; macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g and [&ge;]4500 g) prevalences were 1.0% (IQR 0.3-3.1) and 0.06% (IQR 0.0, 0.30), respectively. Mortality was highest among preterm plus LGA infants (61.3 per 1000). LGA infants in the >90th percentile had over twofold increased mortality compared with appropriate-for-gestational-age infants (RR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.86-3.25), while >97th percentile infants had a higher risk (RR: 3.77; 95% CI: 2.50-5.69). Term LGA >97th percentile infants also showed elevated mortality (RR: 3.14; 95% CI: 1.58-6.22). For LGA >97th percentile, the risk was higher in the early neonatal period (RR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.92-3.82) than late (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.22-2.34). There was no overall association between macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g) and neonatal mortality. Population attributable fractions were 7.2% for LGA >90th percentile and 0.4% for macrosomia ([&ge;]4000 g). Conclusions Neonatal mortality risks were elevated among LGA infants in low- and middle-income countries, particularly at extreme values (>97th percentile) and during the early neonatal period. Macrosomia showed weaker, less robust associations. Although LGA prevalence is currently low ([~]5%) and contributes less to neonatal mortality than small newborns, ongoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions suggest increasing prevalence. This highlights the need for strengthened surveillance, monitoring, and improved delivery planning to ensure that no population is left behind.

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Investigation of the continuous spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the post pandemic time - Insights into the reason for the sustained spread despite the establishment of population immunity

Yi, B.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355009 medRxiv
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In spite of well-established global immune landscape, SARS-CoV-2 is still able to further spread and continue causing infection waves. The current understanding about the reason behind is limited, and it is still difficult to predict the evolution or spreading tread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate whether the establishment of population immunity has changed the virus evolution or spreading pattern. In this investigation, one overall analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in the past several years have been carried out through one thorough genomic epidemiology study, with Germany being chosen as one representative location in view of the systemic efforts for genomic surveillance. The growth advantage of a few predominant variants in its early spreading period has been evaluated through a logistic regression model. The results have revealed that the major circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants since 2023 are mainly derived from the Omicron BA.2 family. Since middle of 2024, most predominant variants were produced primarily through recombination, indicating that the evolution derived from recombination might be the major driving force for the continuous spread of SARS-CoV-2 despite the existence of population immunity. Furthermore, the lower growth advantage of recently emerged variants might possibly lead to a tread of reduction in the frequency of infection wave. The information revealed from this investigation suggests that although short-term spreading tread can be affected by specific virus feature as well as local immunity landscape, the long-term spreading tread is mainly decided by the genomic diversity of the viruses, and can be predicted through phylogenetic and genomic epidemiology investigation. The results have emphasized the importance of maintaining the efforts for genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, which is essential from both medical and research perspectives.

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Seasonality, source type, and women's water labor: A longitudinal mixed-methods study in Kenya and Honduras

Mink, T.; Ogutu, E.; Patrick, M.; Sinharoy, S.; Bolanos Gamez, M. V.; Macler, A.; Ngo, C. P.; Oglesby, H.; Bendit, O.; White, J.; Antonio, S.; Ramos, G.; Roldan Medina Lopez, E.; Atandi, E.; Mwangi, P.; Koome, P.; Otieno Onyango, R.; Otuya, P. A.; Ruto, P.; Caruso, B. A.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355008 medRxiv
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Women shoulder the majority of water collection labor globally, yet how their water collection and water-related work experiences may change over time or by water source type remains insufficiently understood. We conducted a longitudinal, mixed-methods study in rural Kenya and Honduras to understand how women's experiences collecting water and performing water-related work varied between (a) two time points, (b) improved and unimproved water source types, and (c) water source location. Data were collected in 2023 and 2024 using interviews, observation, GPS-enabled watches, and scales to measure time and distance traveled, water weight and volume carried, and calories expended. 133 women participated in data collection (66 Kenya, 67 Honduras). We compared women's experience data by time point (2023 vs. 2024), source type (improved vs. unimproved), and source location (off-premises vs. on-premises) (t-test, Mann-Whitney U test). We also mapped participants' routes and activities to show which sources were visited, when, and for what activities. In Kenya, mean water collection time, distance, and caloric expenditure were significantly lower and water volume was significantly higher in 2024 when there were unexpected rains compared to 2023 when there was a persistent drought. When comparing source types during the 2023 drought, journeys to improved sources took significantly less time and energy and covered less distance than journeys to unimproved sources. These differences were not observed during the rainy conditions of 2024 when unimproved sources were closer and more accessible. In Honduras, water collection and water work burdens did not differ significantly by time point or source type. We found women with on-premises water access to still expend considerable time and caloric expenditure engaging in water work within their household compounds. Findings from Kenya suggest that water infrastructure improvements can reduce women's water collection burdens, though benefits may depend on and vary by season and source location. Findings from Honduras show that water labor does not end once water is in the household. Rather, substantial time and energy are expended carrying out water-related work even when sources are on premises, suggesting that efforts to assess water labor need to extend beyond collection alone. To meaningfully reduce burdens and ensure improved water sources are utilized during all seasons, initiatives need to consider source location, seasonal variability, and work beyond collection. Evaluations to assess infrastructure impacts on women's labor and well-being are needed and long overdue.

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Compositional microbiome-based signatures associate with general health status: findings from a large population-based cohort study

Pujolassos, M.; Kurilshikov, A.; Weersma, R. K.; Yang-Fu, J.; Zhernakova, A.; Calle, M. L.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354796 medRxiv
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While microbiome is increasingly recognized as crucial for human health, translating this knowledge into effective healthcare and preventive strategies remains challenging. Many studies focus on identifying changes in microbiome composition associated with disease and evaluating the potential of such disease-associated microbial profiles as biomarkers for disease diagnosis. Under the hypothesis that microbiome dysbiosis may reflect physiological alterations present long before disease onset, in this work, we analyse the potential of disease-specific microbial signatures not as a diagnostic tool when the disease is already present, but as a means of health assessment in the general population. Moreover, instead of trying to define a single health measure, we believe it is necessary to consider several ways in which the microbiome departs from health, according to different disease-related physiological changes. To evaluate our assumptions, we designed a two-stage study: the identification of disease-specific microbial signatures (discovery stage) and, subsequently, the study of their distribution in the general population to assess associations with general health (external validation stage). Specifically, in the discovery phase we characterized 16 disease-specific bacterial signatures from large public microbiome data using a compositional data analysis methodology. In the second phase, we quantified these microbial signatures in the Lifelines-DMP cohort, a large population-based cohort, and evaluated their association with self-reported health status. Results indicate that most disease-specific microbial signatures associate with health status, supporting our assumption that microbial composition can capture physiological alterations before disease onset, and highlighting the importance of considering multiple ways in which microbiome departs from a healthy state. These findings reaffirm the potential of microbial information as an additional tool in preventive medicine.

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Predictors of Road Safety behaviors among Boda-Boda Operators and their passengers in Kampala: A Mixed-Methods Study

Ainembabazi, R.; Kimuli, D.; Murami, T.; Wafula, S. T.; mgeyi, E.; Kwesiga, J. B.; Kibingo, P.; Mugumya, I.; Atulomah, N. O.; Nsubuga, D.

2026-06-07 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354085 medRxiv
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Background Despite existing road safety regulations, commercial motorcycle riders commonly referred to as "Boda Bodas" in Uganda continue to experience high rates of injuries due to road traffic accidents resulting from unsafe riding behaviours, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality among both riders and passengers. Safe riding behaviours are less well documented, as well as factors associated with the observance of those behaviours. This study aimed to determine factors associated with safe riding behaviors for both boda-boda riders and their passengers in Kampala Central Division. Methods A cross-sectional survey study design was conducted using a convergent parallel mixed-methods design guided by the PRECEDE model. Quantitative data were collected from 424 riders through structured questionnaires administered by trained research assistants. Binary Logistic regression was used to determine the independent predictors of safe road riding behaviors, and Adjusted Odds ratios (AORs) have been reported. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, with a p-value <0.05 considered statistically significant. Qualitative data were collected simultaneously with quantitative data through in-depth semi-structured interviews with 10 passengers to capture perceptions of rider behaviors and safety practices. Thematic analysis was applied, and results were triangulated to highlight convergences and divergences between quantitative and qualitative findings, providing a comprehensive understanding of safety determinants for both riders and passengers. Results Of the 424 riders (mean rider age was 29.56 {+/-} 5.71), overall, 276 (65.1%) of riders exhibited unsafe riding behaviors. In the bivariate analysis with Logistic regression, predisposing factors (education, marital status, religion, and willingness to obey traffic regulations), and reinforcing factors (family encouragement) were significantly associated with safe riding behaviors. However, in the adjusted model, secondary (AOR=0.50; 95% CI:0.30-0.85) and post-secondary education (AOR=0.57; 95% CI:0.33-0.98), being married (AOR=0.56; 95% CI:0.34-0.91), Christian religion (AOR=2.98; 95% CI:1.63-5.47), willingness to obey traffic regulations (AOR=0.41; 95% CI:0.24-0.70), union advocacy (AOR=1.76; 95% CI:1.03-3.01), and well-maintained roads (AOR=1.65; 95% CI:1.07-2.55) were significant predictors of safe riding behaviors. Qualitative interviews further highlighted barriers to safety, including a lack of helmets, over-speeding, disregard for traffic regulations, and poor road infrastructure. Conclusions Rider and passenger safety is still low, interdependent, and influenced by multiple factors. Integrated interventions focusing on education, stronger families, religious affiliations, union safety advocacy, and stricter enforcement of traffic regulations are vital for enhancing safety for both riders and passengers.

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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Human Metapneumovirus and Potential Impact of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Interventions in the United States

Li, K.; Perniciaro, S.; Kwon, J.; Grubaugh, N. D.; Weinberger, D. M.; Pitzer, V. E.

2026-06-04 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354616 medRxiv
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Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) causes acute lower respiratory infections, primarily affecting young children and older adults, with seasonal outbreaks peaking annually in March or April in the United States and other temperate regions in the Northern hemisphere. However, the factors driving HMPV seasonality in the United States remain poorly understood. We analyzed laboratory-confirmed HMPV cases and age-specific emergency department visits across 10 US regions, fitting an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to assess spatiotemporal patterns and investigate the influence of environmental variables and viral interference from RSV on HMPV transmission rates. We found that models incorporating climate variables into the transmission rate, including vapor pressure, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and minimum temperature, could not capture the timing of HMPV activity across all regions. Instead, HMPV timing was associated with RSV activity, with the HMPV transmission rate reduced in the presence of RSV. We showed that, unlike RSV, only models incorporating viral interference could reproduce the biennial pattern of HMPV observed in some regions, characterized by alternating late-small and early-large epidemics. Furthermore, our model successfully reproduced post-COVID-19 HMPV and RSV epidemics and predicted that RSV interventions are not likely to lead to a substantial increase in HMPV activity despite decreasing competition from RSV. Our work unravels the spatiotemporal dynamics of HMPV and its interaction with RSV, informing future seasonal forecasting and intervention strategies for HMPV.

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Usage Pattern and Associated Factors of Natural Mosquitoes Remedies in Endemic Communities of Borno State, Nigeria

Njapdze, R. K.; Ekerette, I. B.

2026-06-08 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.04.25342216 medRxiv
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Introduction: Malaria, primarily transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a major public health concern in Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria. While conventional control methods (e.g., ITNs) face challenges due to insecticide resistance and accessibility constraints, many communities rely on locally sourced natural products. This study aimed to assess the prevalence, usage patterns, and associated factors of these natural alternatives. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted across three purposefully selected communities in Maiduguri (Mairi, Furi, Lagos Street). A total of 450 household heads were interviewed using a structured questionnaire, collecting data on socio-demographics, specific natural products used, method of application, frequency, and perceived efficacy. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression. Results: Overall usage prevalence of natural products was high at 68.4%. The most common products identified were Neem (Azadirachta indica) extract (45.9%) and burnt Lemon Grass (Cymbopogon citratus) (31.2%). Usage pattern was predominantly indoor fumigation (burning), and over 70% of users prepared the products crudely at home. Logistic regression revealed that rural residence (Odds Ratio (OR): 2.1; p<0.01) and low education level (OR: 1.8; p<0.05) were significant independent predictors of higher natural product reliance. Conclusion: Natural products constitute a widely adopted, community-driven vector control method in Borno State. The high prevalence and association with vulnerable populations suggest an urgent need to standardize the preparation and application of these products for potential integration into regional malaria control programs. Keywords: Anopheles, Adulticides, Borno State, Malaria, Natural Repellents, Vector Control, Usage Pattern.

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Meningitis vaccination campaign in the context of COVID-19 in Cameroon

Mbang, M. A.; Cheuyem, F. Z. L.; Tchamani, R.; Debnet, J.; Ebongo, Z. N.; Fouda, A. A. B.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354702 medRxiv
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Objective: The study aimed to describe the challenges, best practices, and lessons learned during meningitis vaccination campaigns conducted in the context of COVID-19 in Cameroon in 2020. Results: During the prevention campaigns, 3,460 individuals were selected. All were tested before the campaign (100%). Eight cases were positive, representing a positivity rate of 0.23% (8/3,460). The campaign was carried out using a fixed strategy in health facilities and prisons and a fixed-temporary strategy in communities. Most health areas received sufficient quantities of COVID-19 equipment for some items and insufficient quantities for others. No screening was done during or after the campaign. The main difficulties encountered were compliance with social distancing and the continuous wearing of gowns. The challenges faced were the screening of actors and the use of personal protective equipment. Lessons learned: aspects related to COVID-19 impacted the speed of the campaign. Vaccination coverage ranged from 91% to 140% in prisons on the one hand, and from 35% to 112% in the health areas surrounding prisons on the other. The campaign in the context of COVID-19 was effective. Compliance with barrier measures was not optimal due to difficulties encountered with aspects such as social distancing, continuous wearing of gowns, screening of participants during and after the campaign, and insufficient personal protective equipment.

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Comparative Evaluation of Mosquito Repellent Products in South Asia and North America: Efficacy, Safety, and Public Health Implications

Sahal, K.; Amin, S. M. A.; Mostafa, T.; Wang, S.; Colucci, B.; Shafoyat, M. U.; Yuan, Z. -m.; Cheng, G.

2026-06-08 toxicology 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355094 medRxiv
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Mosquito-borne diseases continue to pose significant public health challenges worldwide, particularly in densely populated regions of South Asia and parts of North America experiencing increasing vector prevalence due to climate and environmental changes. Commercial mosquito repellents are widely used as a primary preventive measure; however, their efficacy, safety, and public health impacts vary depending on formulation, active ingredients, environmental conditions, and user practices. This study presents a comparative evaluation of commonly used mosquito repellent products in South Asia and North America, including coils, vaporizers, sprays, creams, and Natural repellents. The research aims to assess repellent efficacy against major mosquito vectors, evaluate potential health and respiratory effects associated with prolonged exposure, and analyze consumer awareness and usage patterns across different regions. Laboratory-based efficacy testing and field observations were conducted to compare protection duration, repellency rate, and environmental performance under varying climatic conditions. Safety assessments included analysis of chemical composition, indoor air quality impact, and reported adverse health symptoms among users. The findings indicate significant differences in effectiveness and safety profiles among product categories and geographical regions. Synthetic repellents generally demonstrated higher repellency duration, while herbal formulations showed improved safety and environmental compatibility. The study highlights the importance of standardized evaluation protocols, regulatory oversight, and public awareness in promoting safe and effective mosquito control strategies. These findings may support policymakers, healthcare professionals, and manufacturers in improving mosquito repellent technologies and reducing the burden of mosquito-borne diseases globally.

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A New Mixed Frequency Regression Model For Environmental Epidemiology

Shukla, N.; Bartington, S. E.; Hansell, A. L.; Lucas, T. C.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354801 medRxiv
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Background: In the absence of high-resolution response data, exposure-response modelling often relies on aggregated low-frequency exposure data, leading to loss of high-resolution information. Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) from econometrics offers an alternative but is limited due to its inability to make high-resolution predictions, inflexible likelihoods and penalised nonlinear functions, and limited visualization options. We propose a mixed-frequency Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (mf-DLNM) which can eliminate the need to aggregate exposure data in environmental epidemiology and provide high resolution predictions for time series studies. Methods: We evaluated the inference and predictive performance of the mf-DLNM. To evaluate its ability to estimate exposure-response relationships, we applied mf-DLNM and same-frequency (sf)-DLNM using data from the West Midlands, UK. Additionally, we compared the predictive performance of mf-DLNM with sf-DLNM and MIDAS across nine regions of England. As MIDAS cannot predict at the resolution of the predictor (daily), we compared the predictive performance of mf-DLNM and MIDAS at weekly resolution. To test the model's ability to predict high temporal resolution risk (daily), we compared sf-DLNM (with access to daily mortality counts) with mf-DLNM (with access only to weekly mortality counts). Results: In the West Midlands example, mf-DLNM performed comparably to sf-DLNM in estimating daily risk of temperature on respiratory mortality. Furthermore, mf-DLNM and MIDAS exhibited similar performance for weekly predictions. For high-resolution predictions, mf-DLNM and sf-DLNM showed nearly similar performance, despite mf-DLNM having access only to low-resolution response data. Conclusion: This mixed-frequency approach in environmental epidemiology overcomes the limitations of predicting health risks using aggregated exposure data and provides estimates of high-resolution outcomes in the absence of high-frequency health outcome datasets.

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Influencers, not just adverts: social media influencer exposure and tobacco use among urban youth in Kampala and Nairobi - a comparative mixed methods study

Jawahar Kanth, J. S.; Anish, T. M. R.; Odhiambo, B.; Lwembawo, K. D.; Micheal, S.; Arinaitwe, J.; Nakiyingi, L.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355037 medRxiv
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Tobacco control treaties were written for billboards and television, not for the people now selling lifestyles to young Africans. As mobile internet saturates East African cities, social media influencers have become an unmeasured channel, especially when it comes to tobacco promotion. We assessed the prevalence of tobacco use, its association with influencer exposure, and how urban youth interpret that exposure in two capitals with different tobacco laws. We conducted a comparative mixed-methods study among youth aged 18-29 years in Kampala, Uganda, and Nairobi, Kenya (January-August 2025), combining (i) a cross-sectional survey using systematic sampling at youth-dense venues (n=772), (ii) four online focus group discussions (FGDs; n=40), and (iii) content analysis of 30 tobacco-related posts from high-reach influencers (greater than 50,000 followers). We used chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression, thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke), and descriptive engagement metrics. Ever tobacco use among urban youth in East Africa was 29.3% (226/772), similar in Kampala (30.7%) and Nairobi (28.0%; p=0.409). After adjustment, exposure to influencers promoting tobacco independently predicted ever use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.82; p=0.001), alongside male sex (aOR 2.35) and age 26-29 years (aOR 1.99). Tertiary education (aOR 0.45) and never seeing tobacco content (aOR 0.26) were protective. Posts framed tobacco as aspirational lifestyle; 77% of sampled comments were positive and 47.5% expressed interest in trying the product. Influencer exposure behaved as a modifiable risk factor of a magnitude comparable to established demographic drivers. Tobacco control in the region must move from print-era advertising bans to platform governance, mandatory disclosure of paid promotion, and youth-led counter-marketing.

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Temporal and climatic drivers of uncomplicated malaria in Ghana: A Region Generalised Additive Model analysis.

Akurugu, E.; Awine, T.; Seidu, B.; Peprah, N. Y.; Mohammed, W.; Boateng, P.; Abiwu, P. H. A. K.; Silal, S. P.

2026-06-09 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355054 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Ghana, despite recent reductions in cases due to various interventions. The endemicity of the disease varies across regions, influenced by diverse seasonal and temporal factors that support mosquito proliferation and malaria cases. This study used a Generalised Additive Models to explore the impact of weather conditions on malaria cases in Ghana. Methods Generalised Additive Models were used to examine the nonlinear effects of weather conditions on malaria cases. Monthly aggregated malaria cases from the District Health Information Management System II and average monthly rainfall and temperature data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency were analysed, covering 2012 to 2023. Regional Generalised Additive Models incorporating weather variables were developed, fitted, and validated against observed data using model diagnostics to identify the most suitable model for each region. Results The analysis revealed complex temporal patterns in malaria cases across Ghana, influenced by seasonal and long-term trends. Regions constituting the Coastal and Transitional Forest zones exhibited bimodal peak malaria seasons, while the Guinea Savannah showed a unimodal peak. Significant interactions between rainfall and temperature were identified, particularly in the Eastern region, where higher rainfall combined with temperatures around 27-28 {degrees}C were associated with higher malaria cases, reflecting the complex and region-specific nature of meteorological influences. Conclusions The findings point to the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of malaria caseloads in Ghana, emphasising the need for region-specific control strategies tailored to local climatic conditions. A key recommendation is the systematic integration of meteorological data into the National Malaria Data Repository to enable continuous monitoring of climatic influences and support timely, evidence-based intervention decisions. Future research should incorporate socio-economic factors, intervention coverage data, vector surveillance, and demographic characteristics into mathematical modelling frameworks for a more comprehensive understanding of malaria cases in Ghana.